Extracted/ English Version - April 2024 : The (Green) Future of Work
International readers : this post is for you. French-speaking subscribers, we advise that you switch to this section: https://exfiltrees.substack.com/
As France prepares for labor day tomorrow, to celebrate work while not working, we invite you to reflect on the impact of climate change on the labour market.
What to expect in this issue:
In-depth : Transition = Job Revolution?
From Knowledge to Action : Job Transition: Navigating the Path to Purposeful Work
Podcast of the Month : How to shift careers
We hope you’ll enjoy reading, and many thanks to our new subscribers! Feel free to share your comments, remarks, and suggestions.
IN-DEPTH💡: Transition = Job Revolution?
When it comes to ecological planning, the issue of human resources is rarely identified as a priority. The focus is often on energy resources, technological breakthroughs, infrastructure revolutions... with little or no mention of the skills associated with these trends, which will transform the way we live and work. 👷♂️👩🔬
The challenges of the transition cannot be met without a trained and qualified workforce. What impact will this have on our jobs? Should we fear massive cuts in polluting industries and/or relocation due to rising production costs? Should we apply the popular notion of "stranded assets" to certain professions? Or, on the contrary, can we look forward to new opportunities, with the development of new sectors and "green" jobs?
Limited aggregate impact
There is an extensive literature on the impact of the ecological transition on the labour market, based on numerous studies. While uncertainties about the transition scenario make estimates difficult, a consensus is emerging around a relatively limited total net impact in terms of job numbers, with job losses in certain sectors offset by new needs.
Similarly, in most of the scenarios studied, the impact on skill levels is minimal, thus overturning the oft-repeated notion that the polarization of the labor market between blue-collar and white-collar workers will continue to worsen. In fact, the anticipated job losses and creations will impact all levels - from factory workers to managers - with, in certain sectors, an overall upgrading of skills and qualifications (waste management, for example).
Wide-ranging sector rotations
On the other hand, significant reallocations are to be anticipated at sector level, going far beyond "green" industries and polluting activities.
In a thematic report on the macroeconomic impacts of the climate transition, commissioned by former French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne and coordinated by economist Jean Pisany-Ferry, the French Ministry of Labor's statistics department (Dares) and France Stratégie have identified a number of sectors and professions that are most likely to benefit from the transition. These include :
Qualified construction workers
Farmers, loggers
Engineers in key sectors such as electrical services
Business services including accountants, lawyers and financial services
(More details below, available in French for our bilinguial readers )
The conclusions of this report are broadly in line with the work carried out by the Shift Project think tank in a chapter devoted to employment within the “Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Française (PTEF)”, a vast operational program proposed by the think tank's experts to lead France towards carbon neutrality. The Plan, published in 2021, studies in great detail the impact of the transition on 12 million full-time jobs, or around 45% of the French workforce as of 2018.
The reports identify several sectors particularly impacted by the transition:
Housing/construction 🏠: The reports both point to a net increase in employment in these sectors. The PTEF forecasts moderate growth, with the sharp contraction in new construction (- 190,000 jobs) offset by the need for energy-efficient renovation (+ 100,000 jobs, some of which could come from the conversion of construction jobs). The report "Métiers en 2030" anticipates the creation of 50,000 jobs dedicated solely to R&D, engineering and maintenance of equipment and infrastructures linked to the energy transition.
The impact on agriculture is more debated 🌾. The PTEF scenario forecasts the biggest increase in the sector, with +500,000 jobs over the next 30 years, which would be a return to the number of jobs in the sector in the 1990s. This growth would be achieved through the relocalization of fruit & vegetable production (+ 366,000 jobs) and the widespread adoption of agro-ecological practices (+ 133,000 jobs), reversing the current trend towards imports. France Stratégie's scenario is more measured, forecasting 9,000 additional jobs in a low-carbon scenario by 2030.
⚡Energy
On a global scale, the International Energy Agency predicts that the Net Zero scenario could lead to a net increase of 9 million jobs by 2050.
For France, the PTEF focuses on jobs related to power generation - underpinned by an expected increase in consumption of 20% by 2050. The Plan estimates that this need will generate 15,000 additional jobs by 2050. Unsurprisingly, it is the renewable energy sectors that show the strongest growth between 2017 and 2050.
The France Stratégie report anticipates increased needs for certain "expert" energy professions (e.g. ENR project manager, hydrogen study engineer, energy consultant), as well as for traditional professions whose attributes are becoming more complex (e.g. technician professions).
While major job losses are to be expected in the fossil fuel industries, studies show that inter-sector transferability between energy sectors is relatively high, particularly for the construction of subsea networks and offshore platforms, as well as for carbon capture technologies.
Transporation 🚆
According to the PTEF, the automotive industry 🚗 would be the industry most negatively impacted by the transition in terms of employment, with a net loss of more than 350,000 jobs, or 40% of the current workforce in France. This phenomenon, explained by the reduced use of cars in the PTEF scenarios, as well as by the electrification of the sector, which requires fewer parts and labour) could be partially cushioned by a relocation of battery production and charging infrastructure.
According to the PTEF, the bicycle sector 🚲 (electric and traditional) could create more than 230,000 jobs. This growth would be driven by the sophistication and relocalization of the industry: more high-quality, long-lasting bicycles.
The 40,000 jobs lost in aviation ✈️ should, according to the PTEF, be transferred in their entirety to the rail sector.
For freight transport 🚚, the Plan anticipates 100,000 fewer truck drivers, with, conversely, 100,000 new jobs in last-mile cyclo-logistics.
Professional services to businesses 🏢 would be favorably impacted, according to the France Stratégie report, with an increased need in engineering and research professions, as well as in the legal, financial and accounting sectors (we're thinking in particular of the obligations induced by extra-financial reporting and the phenomenon of CSR judicialization).
Success factors
At a time when we are faced with a problem of finite natural resources, the development of human resources adapted to the transition appears more than ever as a crucial challenge.
There are many opportunities to rethink the world of work in the light of the transition. Nevertheless, the exercise will require rigorous planning, structured around 4 axes:
Anticipation 🧭 : Public authorities must set a compass to redirect players around an employment policy better aligned with industrial priorities. This presupposes a long-term vision, enabling efforts and investments to be targeted in the light of growth/decline projections for each sector.
Upgrading 🔄 : The existing difficulties of supply-demand imbalances in some sectors may be exacerbated. Some critical professions, such as housing and agriculture, are already struggling to find a workforce, because of their hard work and salary levels. To quote just one example : according to the .US Associated Builders and Conctors, it is estimated that the US eletrical workforce could shrink by 10% over the next 6 years while demand could expect by 25%.
A successful transition would require removing the barriers to the attractiveness of these key sectors – by concentrating training and value rebalancing efforts.Acceleration 🚀 : Very high requirements for initial and continued education should be supported. If the transfer of competences is possible and desirable, it will not be easy without ambitious public policies to reinforce competences. A recent IMF study has shown that the likelihood of switching from a polluting activity to a “green” sector remains very low, ranging from 4 to 7%, while the opposite is from 41 to 54%.
Coordination 🤝 :
Nationally among social partners: IMF studies suggest that environmental policies are more effective in countries where the labour market and collective bargaining are coordinated between, trade unions and governments to support green transformation as a common goal.
At the local level among local stakeholders : For France, the PTEF emphasizes the need for better coordination of interventions by the professional bodies of the SMEs (e.g. in the energy renovation sector, between the skills of the building companies and the services of electricians). In this regard, the role of trade unions and trade federations in these processes must be strengthened, as well as the use of Cooperative Societies of Collective Interest (SCICs) that enable better collaboration between companies around decarbonization projects.
Beyond collective efforts, what can be done to organize the transition of work at an individual level? As always in @Exfiltré.e.s we show you that immediate action is possible - go to the next section to learn more!
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FROM KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION 🙋- Job Transition: Navigating the Path to Purposeful Work
You're determined to change your job to better align your livelihood with your ecological convictions, but you're wondering how and where to begin the search? Let us do the heavy lifting for you.
Defining Your Professional Project 🧭
To have a positive impact through your professional life, it's crucial to understand the potential dimensions of what may qualify as an impactful job:
A job with impact in a conventional organization.
Working for an impactful organization.
For the former, we explored the concept of "change from within" in our January issue. We extensively discussed its limitations, particularly the issue of the balance of decision-making power, summarized as follows: how can we drive transition when within our organization, dozens of individuals in more significant positions are incentivized to achieve opposing results?
Thus, we focus here on the latter option: taking the leap into a new organization whose very activities have a positive impact on environmental and social issues.
In its "How to quit your job for the climate" episode, the podcast "Zero: The climate race"1 followed and interviewed individuals who had embarked on a professional transition in recent years. Among the key learnings from the collected testimonials:
✅ Be patient: The search may be lengthy, especially in cases of radical career changes, but the field is growing, and opportunities should become increasingly abundant.
✅ Change your mindset: Consider that the impact achieved is part of your "intangible" compensation, as your monetary pay is likely to decrease while your overall fulfillment increases.
✅ Capitalize on your experience: Rather than completely changing job types, maximize your efficiency and chances of successful transition by applying for jobs that directly utilize your skills and expertise in the service of an impactful organization, which often requires controllers, legal experts, and more.
✅ Activate and leverage your network!
Which Organization, in Which Sector? 👜
In France, Shift your job is a platform created by the Shifters, an association of nearly 19,000 members that provides voluntary support to The Shift Project think tank, which works towards decarbonizing the economy. It maps out companies and organizations in France whose activities and missions are aligned with carbon transition objectives. Currently, nearly 2,600 organizations are listed, categorized into 12 sectors and over 300 sub-sectors identified as impactful. It's worth noting that it currently focuses solely on climate issues, leaving aside other planetary limits.
In its user guide, the platform offers other valuable advice:
✅ Exercise critical thinking, especially in assessing the potential positive impact of the company. Does the region need a 36th solar panel installer? Will the project's financial health enable it to achieve impact goals?
✅ Understand that technical solutions do not challenge the overall functioning of the system that underlies social and environmental crises, and that there are rebound effects (we end up consuming more because we have a clearer conscience).
✅ Do not forget that the activity does not reflect the company culture - which is obviously crucial.
Exploration Avenues 🏁
In addition to the list of organizations provided by Shift your job or Inparable in France, there are websites that directly list job offers in the field.
Let's not forget our English-speaking comrades: Acre Resources, based in London, Amsterdam, New York, and Singapore, has been active in the field for over 20 years and lists numerous offers in finance and industry.
For financiers, Sheffield Haworth, while not specialized, provides interesting quarterly reports on market trends in sustainable investment and impact finance professions.
Additional tips? Be collaborative! Send us your suggestions to enrich our article in real-time.
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PODCAST OF THE MONTH 💚 : Shifting jobs
For English speakers, we suggest delving deeper into the subject with the episode of the podcast "Zero: The climate race" titled "How to quit your job for the climate" (duration: 26 minutes). The diverse testimonials offer insight into the triggering factors of consciousness shifts, the obstacles faced, and the new reality of those who have made radical career changes.
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Production Bloomberg Green, 2023